Google's ranked results could stop being the default between 2028 and 2030

Key points

• Duane Forrester forecasts the U.S. default flip between 2028 and 2030, with UK and EU following a year or more later.
• He calls this his own forecast, not a finding, and ties the trigger to answer-layer ad yield reaching parity with the ranked page.
• Google's own figures show AI Mode at 0.34% of searches Jan to Apr 2026, per Similarweb panel data, versus AI Overviews at 43% of U.S. searches.
• UK conduct requirements from June 3, 2026 give Google nine months, pointing to a deadline around March 2027.

Why it matters for marketers: Content teams should plan for fewer ranked-link clicks in the U.S. and track AI Overview and AI Mode referral data quarterly rather than relying on single vendor figures.